Every pitch deck promises growth.
Few tell you which critical assumption it depends on.
Few tell you which critical assumption it depends on.
This is an example of critical assumptions due diligence that another angel received on the pitch deck they were evaluating. At the end, you can analyze one.
PDF Analyzed pitch deck▼
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🔒 Real case: slides cropped and numbers modified to anonymize the startup
1 What the deck promises vs. where things stand today
The deck promises 3.5× in twelve months. All of that depends on three critical assumptions.
▶ View the table: metric · baseline · goal · gap
Scroll the table →→ there's a comments column
| Metric | Baseline 2025 | Goal 2026 | Gap | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chips sold (cumulative) | 12,000 | 42,000 | ~30,000 | Requires 2,500 new chips/month during 2026. |
| Active subscribers | not disclosed | 3,000 | unknown | Implied trial→paid conversion ~33% (3,000 / 9,000 registered). |
2 The 3 critical assumptions of the growth model
Each block is an assumption turned into a metric: the assumption the growth depends on, the metric that measures it, and the questions to lower the risk when you talk with the founder.
3 The metrics tree: where each number comes from
▶ View the complete tree: where each number comes from
From revenue down to predictive indicators. 🦜 Canary Metric = gives the early signal of whether the model works, before revenue moves.
Click each node to see the critical path of growth metrics 👇
This is the simplified tree. In the complete due diligence it expands down to the detail of each metric.